Lots of media hype warns us that an automation apocalypse is on the horizonA McKinsey & Company study published in January found that about 30% of tasks in 60% of occupations could be computerised and last year, the Bank of England’s chief economist said that 80m US and 15m UK jobs may be taken over by robots. Of course, some jobs are at more risk than others – telemarketers, tax preparers and sports referees are at more risk than others including recreational psychologists, dentists and physicians.
While there have been optimistic predictions that modern technology would increase prosperity and ease the tasks of the working population, very few of us are actually working the 15-hour work week that, in 1930, the economist John Maynard Keynes predicted would be the norm for his grandkids. If anything, a vast number of us are working 15-hour days.
The pace of change is exponentially faster and far wider in scope within today’s working world. It doesn’t matter whether you’re a financial advisor, factory worker or a professional flute-player: automation is coming for you.
Which professions are at greatest risk?
47 per cent of US jobs are not doomed to completely disappear, however they will be redefined as new skillsets are required for these roles, putting a lot of workers out of the job anyway.
Professor Richard Susskind, author of The Future of the Professions and Tomorrow’s Lawyers, echoes this distinction. “What you’re going to see for a lot of jobs is a churn of different tasks,” he explains. “So, a lawyer today doesn’t develop systems that offer advice, but the lawyer of 2025 will. They’ll still be called lawyers but they’ll be doing different things.”
Martin Ford, futurist and author of Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future explains the jobs that are most at risk are those which “are on some level routine, repetitive and predictable”.
Telemarketing, for example, which is highly routine, has a 99% probability of automation according to The Future of Employment report; you may have already noticed an increase in irritating robocalls.
Robots will also take over the more repetitive tasks in professions such as law, with paralegals and legal assistants facing a 94% probability of having their jobs computerised. According to a recent report by Deloitte, over 100,000 jobs in the legal sector have a high chance of being automated within the next 20 years.
Fast food cooks also face an 81% probability of having their jobs replaced by robots like Flippy, an AI-powered kitchen assistant which is already flipping burgers in various CaliBurger restaurants.
So which jobs will be safe from automation?
The first is jobs that involve “genuine creativity, such as being an artist, being a scientist, developing a new business strategy”. Ford notes: “For now, humans are still best at creativity but there’s a caveat there. I can’t guarantee you that in 20 years a computer won’t be the most creative entity on the planet. There are already computers that can paint original works of art. So, in 20 years who knows how far it’s going to go?”
The second sector is those jobs which involve relationship building. Nurses and doctors for example, or a business role that requires you to build close relationships with clients.
The third area is jobs that are highly unpredictable – for example, if you’re a plumber who is called out to emergencies in various locations.
While being in a creative or people-focused industry may keep your job safe for the next 10 years or so, it’s extremely hard to predict what will happen 20 years into the future – we should be watchful of downplaying just how much computers may change the working world.
While we’ve been doing a lot of robot-bashing, it should be noted that automation isn’t the only phenomenon having an impact on the job market. Saadia Zahidi, head of the education, gender and work system initiative at the World Economic Forum (WEF), says that we “shouldn’t forget that there are other drivers of change”. These include the rise of the middle class in many emerging markets, aging populations in certain parts of Europe and East Asia, and the changing aspirations of women as factors that will have significant impacts on jobs. “It’s really the coming together of these various drivers of change that then leads to disruptions in the labor market,” Zahidi notes.
The report warns that we’re going to see significant ramifications from automation very soon. Zahidi explains: “The next three years will be a period of flux and a period of relatively higher losses than gains. This is not meant to be alarmist in the sense that there will be heavy job losses. But if we do nothing then this will be where we end up.”
Gender inequality could also be affected says Zahidi. With the STEM field suffering from a lack of female applicants, this is likely one sector in which jobs will grow. On the other hand, Zahidi notes, there do tend to be more women in care-related professions, such as healthcare and education, which are at a lower risk of automation.
In the long run, women may actually end up faring better from technological change. A recent PricewaterhouseCoopers report found that a higher proportion of male than female jobs are at risk of automation, especially those of men with lower levels of education.
So what can you do to prepare yourself for the change?
Justin Tobin, founder of the innovation consultancy DDG, says he believes: “More and more independent thinkers are realizing that when being an employee is the equivalent to putting all your money into one stock – a better strategy is to diversify your portfolio. So you’re seeing a lot more people looking to diversify their career.”
Faith Popcorn, a futurist, echoes the idea that we will all have to become as agile as possible and “have many forms of talent and work that you can provide the economy”.
In the future, she says, we’ll all have various jobs, with the average adult working for a various companies simultaneously rather than working for one big corporation.
“We’re in the midst of this huge sweeping change that is going to impact all levels of society,” Popcorn warns.
Popcorn has made herself a bit of a legend over the years by predicting the future, but even she seems a little unsettled by the pace of change today. As she tells me with a world-weary sigh, it “just makes you want to have some more tequila”.
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